Swaminathan Iyer of ET in TOI Sunday Jan 5 2014 has come out with a grand prediction that if AAP manages to win 30 to 40 seats it can successfully stop Narendra Modi from becoming PM after ensuing LS elections. Many Columnists write not to objectively analyse the  Delhi Phenomenon of the fledgeling AAP and its victory based on facts but are attempting to create a favourable mood in favour of AAP on subjective bias, perception and propgandic mind set.

The Delhi Victory very clearly has thrown a verdict where Congress has been decimated from a ruling majority to a party of mere 8 seats in the assembly of 70 members while BJP emerged as the largest party with 32 seats. AAP got 28 seats. It’s clearly the loss of Congress seats in Delhi which AAP has gained. BJP might not have got the majority to form the government but its voter base is still intact with some marginal loss.

Taking that scenario at the national level its quite clear that wherever Congress is holding the seat its possible that AAP may make inroads.Which is too early to predict if it can ,given the robust organisation required to contest Lok Sabha elections and the  reach of each Constituency.  AAP is surely weak on this wicket.

It will be easy to collect a couple of Crores as donations from sympathisers and enthusiastic young voters who too are in a hurry to see traditional politics change for better. But  getting the right candidate for each constituency is the gigantic task .Presently AAP hopes to get Candidates who enjoy a good reputation in their respective feild like say honest IAS officer Khemka who took on Vadra land deal in Haryana or PWD officer  in Maharashtra who exposed Dy CM Ajit Pawar thousands of crores of irrigation scam. Khadar Khan former ACP in Mumbai too joins AAP .But his grudge is he was demanded lakhs of Rupees as bribe for getting a postiong near his residence. People with personal agenda and who in Industry or beaureaucracy did not get a good deal are AAP”s possible candidates. But to get large number of candidates with clean and honest track record of public sservice is a daunting task.

Assuming AAP gets sufficient such Candidates as they had in Delhi elections, the results of Delhi show that AAP can wrest seats from Congress more easily than from BJP, in the face of humungous corruption charges that Congress is facing. The gain of AAP is clearly going to be the loss of Congress.

In Delhi elections too ,Maulanas and Muslims United Forum  support with their ads and 15 lakh SMS have made a huge difference (ET WED 11 Dec 2013 ) in AAP’s stunning victory which even Arvind Kejriwal said a miracle has happened during oath ceremony. I am sure  he will agree  ET story tells why it was a miraclulous  spectacular unexpected victory. Why Arvind Kejriwal didn’t  object to this Muslims identity politics during elections  that wes played   by Muslims to settle scores with Congress  who were angry for not resolving their wakf property disputes by Congress leaders is another is the other face of AAP. Muslims voted in large numbers to AAP not on anti corruption plank it was clear. Delhi elections have shown  the true character of AAP, that its ready to compromise for the sake of coming to power So its non traditional non communal face is under question.

Thus conditions that helped AAP to get more seats are not identically present to help AAP win  big in the National Elections across the country. So AAP winning a sbstantial number of seats on its own merit is doubtful. Since Delhi election surprise has given a wake up call to all serious contenders they too will be galvanising their election machinery and pull all stops to see that AAP doen’t get away as easily as in Delhi.

It may be argued that BJP may not be able to take the benefit of anti incumbency factor of Congress and AAP may gain from that, as it happened in Delhi. One factor plays out very clearly in the political arena. Unhappy Muslim voters who were backing Congress traditionally are showing inclination towards AAP.This ghetto politics of Muslims and their Communities can turn the table in favour of AAP in many seats. Thats suerly will not be BJP’s loss. It will be of Congress’s.

Any way there are so many promninant leaders in BJP who have observed that it will be daunting task to get Muslims to vote for BJP in a big way.But that loss of seats can be made up in the light of Strong leadership of Narendra Modi who emerges as a PM candidate on the back of solid performance in Gujarat. He carries a vision for India. His Constituency among youth has grown across the lenght and breadth of country. The crowds that he is able to draw is a reflection of his popularity. Narendra Modi seems in all probability a winner.

Since AAP cannot form its government at centre on its own voters will think twice  before wasting their votes. Some opportunist voters may get carried away for AAP ,after victory in Delhi though many may not be aware of all factors that led this victory and go along with AAP. But that may just make a dent and will not be strong enough wave to push back NDA from coming to power in  Delhi. As of now its a long way for AAP to get meaningful number at LS elections. Media may be playin darling to AAP without throwing light on truth at the right time but people are aware and watching . One cannot fool all the people all the time. The desreving will be victorious this time. More significant factors are in favour of Modi than any body else.

Swaminathan Iyer failed in his predictions on economics in the nineties, the learned Media chap is going to get it wrong this time in politics too !